HIP-4 prediction markets on Hyperliquid
HIP-4 adds native prediction markets, called outcome markets, to HyperCore, Hyperliquid's own chain. They trade next to perps and spot, quoted in USDC and fully collateralized. Binary markets pay 1.00 for the winning side and 0 for the losing side. No leverage, no liquidation.
Trade outcome markets on HyperliquidRead the official HIP-4 docs
Key facts
- Status
- Mainnet since 2026-05-02. Permissionless market deployment since late August 2026.
- Collateral
- USDC. Portfolio-margin users can borrow against BTC or HYPE. Falling collateral can be liquidated, but outcome positions cannot.
- Leverage
- None. Every position is fully collateralized and cannot be liquidated.
- Settlement
- Binary markets pay 1.00 or 0. Standalone deployer markets can pay a fraction. Sell early if there is a bid.
- Fees
- No exchange fee to open. You pay on close or at settlement. A frontend's builder fee can apply on buys.
- Who lists markets
- Hyperliquid's own recurring price markets, plus deployers who stake HYPE and use validator-approved templates.
How it works
Buying Yes at 0.40 is the same order as selling No at 0.60. Both sides share one book, and the Yes price reads as the implied probability. A question groups mutually exclusive outcomes, with an "Other" fallback. Exactly one settles Yes.
Per contract, before fees
| Buy Yes | 0.40 | cost per contract |
|---|---|---|
| Settles Yes | 1.00 | +0.60 |
| Settles No | 0.00 | −0.40 |
| Sell early | best bid | exit before settlement if there is a bid |
Hyperliquid's recurring markets settle on the interpolated HyperCore mark price at expiry. Deployer price markets follow their template's source and rule, such as a feed TWAP ending at a set time. A price touch can settle early. Event templates fix the evidence source and deadline. The deployer submits the result, and validators can slash its stake if the market breaks the template. Hyperliquid documents no dispute window for traders.
Who this is for
New to prediction markets
A price between 0 and 1 is the probability the market assigns. Yes at 0.40 means a 40% chance. If you think the event is more likely, buy Yes. If less, buy No. Open the outcome markets tab at app.hyperliquid.xyz.
Traders
Same account and matching engine as perps and spot. An outcome position is fully collateralized. The most you can lose is its cost. A thin book can make an early exit expensive. Live on 2026-09-23: BTC, ETH, SOL and HYPE daily targets, price ranges, Premier League, Fed policy, IPO dates.
Developers
Public read API, no key needed:
curl https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info \
-H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
-d '{"type":"outcomeMeta"}'Each side is a coin #<10 × outcome + side> in l2Book and trades. Side 0 is first, usually Yes. Sides can have names, as in a head-to-head market. Balances show as +<encoding>. Signed orders use asset id 100000000 + encoding on the normal order action. WebSocket adds outcomeMetaUpdates. The official SDK is Python. TypeScript SDKs such as @nktkas/hyperliquid are community projects. Deployers use activateOutcomeDeployer and outcomeDeploy, documented in the HIP-4 deployer actions.
HIP-4 vs Polymarket vs Kalshi
| Attribute | HIP-4 | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Runs on | HyperCore, Hyperliquid's L1 order book | Polygon. Off-chain matching, on-chain settlement | CFTC-regulated exchange with its own clearinghouse |
| Collateral | USDC | pUSD, a USDC-backed token | USD |
| Account | Wallet or email sign-in | Wallet or email sign-in | USD account, KYC required |
| Resolution | Hyperliquid's recurring markets use the interpolated HyperCore mark price at expiry. Deployers settle theirs under the template's source and rule | UMA optimistic oracle with a 2-hour challenge window | Kalshi resolves under each contract's rules, often about 3 hours after the outcome is known |
| Fees | No exchange fee to open. You pay on close or at settlement. Deployers can multiply the base rate up to 20× on their markets | Taker fee scaled by p(1 − p), makers pay nothing | Taker 0.07 × contracts × p(1 − p), rounded up. Makers usually pay nothing |
| Who lists markets | Hyperliquid, plus HYPE-staked deployers using approved templates | Polymarket team | Kalshi team |
| Liquidity | Much smaller. A few markets hold most activity | Deep on popular markets, thin in the long tail | Deep on popular markets, thin in the long tail |
| US access | Excluded on the official app under its terms | Blocked. Separate Polymarket US product with KYC | Yes, with KYC |
| API | REST and WebSocket, wallet-signed orders | REST and WebSocket, wallet-signed orders | REST, WebSocket and FIX, RSA-signed keys |
Sources: Hyperliquid HIP-4 docs, Hyperliquid app terms, Polymarket fees and resolution, Kalshi fee schedule. Polymarket column describes the international product. Checked 2026-09-23.
Frequently asked questions
What is HIP-4?
HIP-4 added fully collateralized outcome markets to HyperCore. Each contract has two sides, usually Yes and No.
Is HIP-4 live?
Yes. Testnet opened on 2026-02-02 and mainnet on 2026-05-02 with a daily BTC market. Permissionless deployment reached mainnet in late August 2026. On 2026-09-23 there were three deployer venues: Outcome, trade[XYZ] and Skew.
How do I trade HIP-4 markets?
Open app.hyperliquid.xyz, connect a wallet or sign in with email, deposit USDC from Arbitrum, Ethereum, Base or Polygon, and use the outcome markets tab. Builder frontends such as Outcome, trade[XYZ] and Nansen route orders to the same markets.
Can I use leverage on HIP-4?
No. Outcome positions are never liquidated. Portfolio-margin accounts can borrow USDC against BTC or HYPE, but that collateral can be liquidated if it falls.
Who creates HIP-4 markets?
Hyperliquid runs recurring price markets. Other deployers stake HYPE and use validator-approved templates. Validators can slash deployers whose markets break a template.
How does settlement work?
In binary markets, the winning side converts to 1.00 USDC per contract and the losing side to 0. Hyperliquid's recurring markets use the interpolated HyperCore mark price at expiry. Deployer price markets follow the template's source and rule, such as a feed TWAP or a price touch. Touch markets can settle early. The deployer submits the result. Standalone deployer markets may settle to a fraction, for example 0.5.
What are the fees?
No exchange fee to open. A fee applies when you close or when the market settles, and deployers earn a share of it. Frontends can add a builder fee, including on buys. Official docs conflict on the current rate, so check the fee shown at order time.
Which countries can use HIP-4?
The official app excludes anyone living in or located in the United States, Ontario or sanctioned jurisdictions. Outcome markets exclude more countries. Builder frontends set their own restrictions. Check the terms before depositing.
HIP-4 vs HIP-3: what is the difference?
HIP-3 is builder-deployed perps with leverage, funding and liquidations. HIP-4 outcomes are fully collateralized and usually pay 1.00 or 0. Both use HyperCore.
The Hyperliquid app terms, last updated 2026-06-15, govern availability.